What will happen to Trumpism after Trump?

From Populism Newsletter #3, February 2021, pp. 14-15.

Maria Tsiko

PhD candidate at the Department of Politics and International Studies at Loughborough University

The 2020 US election was historical as it marked the highest voter turnout in the country’s history, with Joe Biden winning the popular vote with 81.2 million votes, more than any presidential candidate, while Biden became the first Democrat to flip Georgia since President Clinton in 1992. Donald Trump’s defeat was celebrated as the end of an administration that was considered an aberration and was followed by triumphant declarations about the end of the era of populism in the United States.

Trump’s series of failures, including his impeachment trial, his failure to meet the hyperbolic promises to restore the greatness of the US, his mishandling of the Covid-19 crisis, and inability to extend his voting base, did not dent his appeal. Not only he managed to maintain 92% of his voters from the 2016 elections, but also to secure 74.2 million votes, an extra 11.2 million votes since the last election. These facts indicate that the support for Trump is still widespread and enduring among Americans, while his discourse remains influential, proving that Trumpism will far outlast Trump’s presidency.

This comes as no surprise if we examine his 2020 campaign. Building on the experience of 2016, Trump’s 2020 discourse was a rebranding of right- wing ideas, tapping on the unmet demands of the American society with a populist discourse infused with nativist elements. Trump appealed to the American people and their accumulated anger, while creating frontiers to divide society in antagonistic camps. Specifically, he divided the socio-political space in two, ‘us’ and ‘them’, claiming to give voice to the ordinary American people whom he juxtaposed against their ‘other’ – a controlling political and economic establishment who ‘allowed in’ an unruly enemy (‘immigrants’, ‘Mexicans’, and ‘Muslims’).

His unwillingness to condemn far-right groups that incite violence, like the Proud Boys, or evenactively mobilising them, while at the same time his presentation of the ‘Black Lives Matter’ protesters as ‘the enemy’, the ‘thugs’ that were responsible for looting, polarised the American society and tapped on white racial insecurities. His slogan ‘Make American Great Again’ was a rather nostalgic promise for a return to ‘the good old days’ with a less diverse society and a reinforced white male role; a promise that proved to be rather successful with part of the electorate, and especially with white males, who consisted the majority of his voting base.

His discourse was unique for a politician of a major party due to his distinctive indifference to civility, political correctness, and facts. Belittling adjectives for his opponents (‘Sleepy Joe’), confrontational style of campaigning, references to conspiracy theories and misinformation were recurring in his discourse. Adopting such a behaviour allowed him to normalise politicians who were politically incorrect, changing the Republican base to accept more extreme political actors.

Therefore, themes of desperation of the ‘ordinary voter,’ degradation of an America that is presented as a ‘loser’ to the international trade game, and a xenophobic and racist construction of the ‘other’, were consistent in his campaign discourse and as reflectedin the election results they were still popular with the electorate albeit to a lesser extent that in the 2016 elections.

 Trumpism was also reinforced through Trump’s appointments to the federal Judiciary that will further enhance its conservative character and exercise influence for years to come. The institutions have managed at times to stop Trump’s effort to bypass checks and balances and put him under investigation and trial for his ties with Russia before and after the 2016 elections. However, the lack of political will, especially from the Republicans in the Senate, not only allowed Trump to avoid conviction but has also revealed the extent of his influence in the Republican Party.

The meteoric rise of Trump in the GOP was remarkable for a candidate that entered the race as an independent and outsider with an anti- establishment rhetoric and a critical tone against the elite of the Republican Party. From a generalised resistance to Trump’s candidacy within the party and a ‘Never Trump’ movement in 2016, we have, in 2020, the majority of Republicans holding a positive view of Trump’s presidency with many of them pondering a Don Jr candidacy for the near future. This change towards Trump can be attributed to his winning of the GOP nomination in the 2016 elections and bringing a unique political brand to the Republican Party, notwithstanding the fact that his beliefs about trade protectionism, isolationism and expansion of social security benefits were incompatible with the traditional Republican values of limited government and the primacy of national security in the political agenda. His populist nativist discourse with politically incorrect and emotive language, that motivated the alienated middle-class American, presented a different but winning formula for the next Republican candidate. This indicates that although Trump is gone, his political brand will remain an influential force in the US political arena. 

Trump’s grip on the Republican Party was such that even the accusations of electoral fraud and refusal to concede, did not inspire a self-preservation feeling in his most loyal Republicans that would lead them far from the losing candidate, but on the contrary, his claims were met with either support or lack of mounting disapproval. With this new round of misinformation, Trump alarmed people that their votes are not being counted and their rights of representation are being suppressed adding thus to his populist discourse. Moving the Republican Party further to the right could make Biden’s goal of achieving bipartisan collaboration hard to achieve. With almost half of the electorate supporting Trump, Trumpism will be difficult to eradicate. Only if Biden manages to meet the needs of the American people that remained unfulfilled even from before Trump’s presidency will he win the trust of Trump’s voters, minimise polarisation and prevent xenophobic populists like Trump to thrive.